Political Science 1100, Introduction to American Politics, February 23, 2015

 

Current Events 

 

Voting

 

1. THE IDEAL FOR AMERICAN ELECTIONS:  PROSPECTIVE VOTING


 

PROSPECTIVE VOTING

Under Ideal Circumstances,
Rational Voters Cast Prospective Votes For the Candidates That Offer Future Policies They Prefer

 

Prospective voting assumes that voters

    - are well informed

    - carefully consider several candidates, and
    - vote for the candidate who will do what the individual voter thinks is best

 

 

2. THE REALITY OF AMERICAN ELECTIONS: American Circumstances are far from idea.
 

Turnout tends to be Low

 

Those who turnout are not perfectly representative of voting age adults.
 

 

Four Reasons that Voters Choose One Candidate Over Another

 

a. Party Identification

 

 

 

 

b. The Image Of The Candidates

 

 


 

c. Candidates' Stands On Major Issues

 

 

 

 

d. Incumbents' Past Performance in Office
 

 


 

In Reality, we tend to cast Retrospective Votes: We Tend To

       Retrospective voting is particularly important in voting for President

 

2008: A Change election favors challenger Obama

 

2012: Obama was now the incumbent

 

Four Reasons that Voters Choose One Candidate Over Another

 

a. Party Identification

 

 

 

 

b. The Image Of The Candidates

 

 


 

c. Candidates' Stands On Major Issues

 

 

 

 

d. Incumbents' Past Performance in Office
 

 


 

In Reality, we tend to cast Retrospective Votes: We Tend To

       Retrospective voting is particularly important in voting for President

 

2008: A Change election favors challenger Obama

 

2012: Obama was now the incumbent

 

 

 

Political Parties

1. Why do we have political parties? 
 

    - Ask James Madison - Why did he help create America's first political party?

    - to make American government work by building coalitions of
               
                (1) legislators and other public officials (party in government),

                (2) voters who would vote for candidates for public office (party in the electorate) .

                (2) a party organization 

  How do the Parties choose their candidates?

    Mostly through Primary elections  (Jillson, page 198).            

2. Why Do Only Two Parties Dominate American Politics?

   The Democrats and Republicans have dominated
       American politics since the 1850s -

      "Third" Parties rarely win electoral votes
 

1) History: We've Always Had Two

     Since the 1850s, the Democratic and Republican Parties have
     dominated American Politics

   

2) Party Identification: People Tend To Stick With One Party or the Other

 

3) Americans agree on basic values 

 

4)   Single Member, Plurality Elections Make It Difficult for 3rd Parties

       These rules make it hard for "Third" Parties to sustain electoral success

 

3. What groups tend to vote for Democrats and Republicans today?

 

    Party Identification: Partisan Democrats & Republicans vote for their party candidates

 

    Ideology: Conservatives vote Republican, Liberals vote Democratic

 

    Gender: women vote slightly more Democratic, men vote slightly more Republican

 

    Income: People with higher incomes vote Republican, those with lower incomes vote Democratic

 

    Race: Whites tend to vote Republican, African-Americans and Latinos tend to vote Democratic

   

        - the decline of the white electorate

 

   Region of the Country: The Northeast and West Coast votes Democratic, most of the South vote Republican

 

   The Urban / Rural Divide: Cities tend to vote Democratic, Rural areas tend to vote Republican

 

BUT: Party identification by ideology, gender, and the urban / rural divide
           is much more divided now than they were 50 years ago

 

 

 

4.Why are the Parties so Polarized Now?

 

   Political Polarization: 
     the separation of  Democrats and Republicans in political attitudes and behavior

 

coalitions have driven the parties apart
 

Realignment of American Parties since the 1980s

 

 

    The conservative South has transformed from a strong Democratic region to a strong Republican region
      – making the Republican Party more conservative & less moderate

 

 

 

    Liberal areas of New England. the West and inner suburbs (like St. Louis County) have left the Republican Party
     -  making the Democratic Party more liberal and less moderate

 

 

    The Tea Party:    an even more conservative faction, has made the Republican party more conservative

        it favors lower taxes, less government spending, balanced budgets, and less government regulation

 

 

Americans and political parties are very polarized today

 

            Party in the electorate

 

 

            Party in government

             If you are an elected official and you are too moderate, you may be "primaried," especially in the Republican Party, and you could lose because voters in primary elections are more ideological than voters in the general election.

 

5. WHO CARES about the political parties?

To Become President, Or Governor, Or A Legislator,

    You Still Have To Win Elections

    -- But Without Strong Parties To Help,

       Your Tactics For Winning Have To Include
 
 

1). The "Candidate-Centered" Campaign

You Have To Rely On Yourself To Win Elections
 
 

2). If You Go It Alone And Rely On Yourself,

You Have To Advertise Yourself To Potential Voters

(That's Because They Won't Rely On Party Labels

As Much)

 

You have to run your own campaign and find a lot of donors

 

And many donors will only give you big money if you are very ideological and very partisan – like they are

 

And if you are rewarded for being very ideological and partisan, you may be punished if you compromise