The ideas and examples referenced below are notes compiled by Robert Keel and Shannon Mayer in their reading of Volti's, Society and Technological Change, 3rd ed., St. Martin's Press, 1995. They are intended for classroom use.
TECHNOLOGY AND JOBS: MORE OF ONE AND LESS OF THE OTHER?
Many technologies have led to the elimination of human jobs
technological development has led to great increase in worker productivity
1900 — 1 hour labor = $1.00 of goods and services
1970 — 1 hour labor = $6.00 of goods and services (after adjusting for inflation)
The Threat of Machine-Made Unemployment
Computerized typesetting — typesetters jobs — 8,000 to 3,800 (1966-1978)
Computerized banking — 35,000 transactions/day with 10% fewer tellers
Electronic synthesizers — studio musicians are back by a third
The Technological Threat in Historical Perspective
These developments are not new to our times
18th Cent. — power loom forced many loomers out of a job
(Their future loomed none to bright ahead of them... heh, heh!)
Opposition to new technology came not only from workers but also from officials
1638 — Britain — banned use of "engines for working of tape, lace, a ribbon, and such, wherein one man doth more amongst them than seven English men can doe." (143)
A Case for Optimism
Technological advance is NOT incompatible with high levels of unemployment
When considering effects of technological change on overall level of unemployment:
Even if all available technology were used to full capacity -->
There would still be plenty of work to do
People still need better food & housing
Even among the affluent, the desire for more and more still exists
Technological advances will not lead to job losses if the demand for products/services increases at the same pace as productivity
Technological change often creates the need for new work to be done
How Technology Creates Jobs
Some technology has produced jobs that did not exist before
COMPUTERS
Most occupations held today did not exist one hundred years ago
Technological advance has created the need for new and better technologies
"In 1963 one economist warned that American households were saturated with demostic appliance, resulting in a stagnant market for manufactured goods; the only significant new product was the electric can opener." !!!! (145)
Indirect Effects of New Technology on Employment
The Automobile: greatest job generator of the 20th Century
1 out of 7 jobs in Am. Economy result from auto
legions of jobs tied indirectly to auto as well (sales, insurance, mechanics)
Few other technologies will be able to match auto in job generation
Jet airplane, computer, television all pale in comparison
Although these industries have not directly generated jobs, they have had indirect
impact
The Machines Aren’t Ready to Take Over
Stereotype of technological change: robots are going to take over everything
Only partially true: 1 robot/900 man. production workers
Machines, however, have replaced some human staffed positions
CAD-(computer-aided-design)
CAM-(computer-aided-manufacturing)
Flexible manufacturing systems- general purpose machines capable of a variety of tasks
Impressive, but very expensive ($3-4 million ea.) and not the norm for industry
Can also be problematic --> if machine breaks then everything stops
Technology, Jobs and The Changing Structure of The Economy
Automated industrial processes have replaced many human positions
15% of work force will me lost as computerization spreads
In the last 100 years, 2/3 of pre-1880 jobs have been lost to mechanization
Manufacturing jobs have declined regularly since 1948
BUT, new jobs have been created
In particular, the service sector has grown considerably
Neurosurgeons and shoeshiners
For the first time in human history,
more people are employed in the service sector than in the manufacturing sector
QUESTION:
If the basis of human survival requires food, clothing, and shelter...
How can the majority of the work force be employed in occupations that contribute nothing to production???
ANSWER:
With the rise of industrialization, it takes less human labor to produce needed goods
Despite the rise of technology, there is a continued and growing demand for services
Dept. Of Labor— the most needed jobs of the future are waiters, nurses, cashiers etc.
Also, we are human beings and we crave physical contact
Education— although technology has played a role, lectures and discussions, over which a professor presides is still the desired method for teaching
Although a professor could lecture to 500 students and increase "productivity"
It is typically less rewarding for the student and the teacher
Also, human beings still have a need to be entertained, comforted, and healed
Technology has affected many jobs— not always adversely
Telephone Industry— operators eliminated considerably when phone switching became
Automated. Yet # of jobs in telephone job market has continued to expand because of advanced technology and increased demand
Softening the Blow
Technology does destroy some jobs but it also opens up opportunities for new jobs
The worker’s best defense against the changing tides resulting from technology is adaptability and versatility
Most importantly,
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE HAS NOT ELIMINATED THE NEED FOR WORK
even advanced technologies require skilled operators