Selected Overheads:

Ode to Procrastination

Risk Management Powerpoint show (tools/macro/security must be medium or low and macros must be enabled to work)
the other show linked on the syllabus page has a different set of numbers than this one, so it might be good for practice.

• hierarchy of decisions
• smokers case
• Situational Optimism
• Minimax Regrets
• drivers ed case
• emv and evpi table
• emv spreadsheet
• ski's coats and umbrellas EMV (Excel) graphical sensitivity
• Future options table (Excel)
• evpi tree
• Value of information (PPS)
• EVSI tree
• Decision Trees example applications
• Incentives and the GM Malibu gas tank case
• Classroom issue decision tree from course evaluation

Breakeven Analysis

• "Location" Breakeven Analysis (Excel)
• Budget spreadsheet
• Salary Raise Budgets

Reliability

• Bathtub Curve and group relamping
• Joint events rain
• multi component reliability and backups -terminology and calculations EXCEL
1. the Videoconferencing Rig low reliability telephone
2. the Videoconferencing Rig high reliability telephone

Complications

• Real Life is more Complicated
• factor rating BA103 site
• Factor Rating prepared sheet

Game Theory

• The Quarter Game
• Game theory PDF
• Zero Sum Game
• Prisoners' Dilemma Game
• Examples Lousy pay and shoddy work
• Examples The Group Project FreeRider Problem
• The Merge Lane Problem
• Future Value and Rational Self-interest
• The Pragmatic Partnership Ethic
• What is Partnership?  In the Long Run---
• Tit for Tat Strategy

Subjectivity

• Real Life is more Complicated
• Independence Axiom and the Allais Paradox
• Buying a car
• Muller-Lyer illusion
• frazier twisted spiral
• Spot the animal
• What you see depends on what you expect to see
• Hermann grid illusion
• Believe
• Understand ppt in tqm.ppt
• Miller's Law "To understand what someone is saying, you must first assume that it is true, and then determine what it is true of."
• Models outpredict Experts
• Good decisions aren't made
• Sources of Data --Statistical Process Control ppt (Campbell)
• Quality Control & Total Quality Management ppt (Campbell)
• Total Cost of Inspections
• Concepts of TQM
• Why TQM fails (Martinich)
• Customer Focused Quality Management
• Logical Steps: A=B
• Risk Management --go back to  tqmppt

Linear Programming

• The Transportation problem

• Tport NWC & OCM pdf
• Linear Programming Intro ppt  part2 ppt   part 3 ppt  (Campbell)
• X-Y Company
• x-y LP geometric solution handout
• X-Y company graph
• See Sensitivity tables in handout
• X-Y LP problem solved in EXCEL Solver --Video Tutorials
• X-Y LP solved in POM-WIN
• Formulation and Interpretations of LP output
• Dr. James Campbell's Powerpoint shows Linear Programming Intro ppt  part2 ppt  part 3 ppt
• Aircraft product mix
• The Mulch Company
• Molly's Fruit Pies
• Tech travel transportation problem
• tech travel pdf
• tech travel solver model
•     The company that wrote solver for Microsoft has a web page at  http://www.frontsys.com

            EXCEL spreadsheet of a transportation model  generic
            EXCEL Transportation Model for the technician travel problem in class
            Description of  Technician travel model to explore shadow prices of hiring more technicians and spreadsheet Solver Model
                EXCEL transportation model for exploring extra plant capacity expansion rbbexpan.pdf description and rbbexpan.xls beginning of model
• Diet Problem
• case: computer product mix
 

Scheduling

• Microscheduling/ job sequencing:
• Joe Gantt's auto repair schedule
• Job Matching -Assignment Method-Excel
• Assigning jobs--an example, as a PDF file, (you need the free add-in, Adobe Acrobat for this)
• and an EXCEL Solver solution by Bill Cacheris of the MBA online program
• What does it Mean?
• Process Priority Rules-Excel/ POM-Win excel sheet for FCFS.
• pdf for Johnson's rule.  Description of Johnson's rule procedure.
 

Queuing

• Powerpoint introduction (Dr. James Campbell)
• Overview of flow,  terms and simple formulas
• M/M/S  r, Lq and Po tables
• Airline ticket office example
• How many cabs at the train station to get average time in system (Ws) to less than one hour?
• How many cabs at the train station to Minimize total cost of service plus cost of waiting?
• Combining Queues at the airport
• Summary and psychological factors

Simulation:

 Queuing: Infinite Source                                                             Module D
 Simulation modeling                                                                    Module F

   PDF of the Macdoggie Case  macdog.exe  file to be used in the Exercise in class.See the EXTEND videos on the CD and at videolist. This is a self- extracting archive, so execute it  and it will extract in the same directory to give you macdog2.mox which you can then use with the EXTEND program to do the assignment. It's small (20 K archive, 35 K extracted) so you can save it and extract it anyplace, even on a floppy disk.

Benefits:

• Low Cost (Risk) Experiments
• Compress time scales

Best for

• Complex processes
• Multiple step
• Sequential random events
• Unpredictable by other models
• Sexual reproduction

Mitochondrial DNA and the origin of Humankind

• Nova Article
• History of Medicine (Mitochondrial DNA Powerpoint show)
• Max Ingman Thesis
• BBC Article
• Pitcairn Island has only four family names
• EXCEL simulation on extinction of family names
• hierarchy of decisions
• Puzzles

Classical Inventory:

• Inventory Powerpoint I (Dr. James Campbell)
• Inventory formula summary
• Z score Tables
• EOQ example: TV tubes
• Quantity Discounts--hospital cleaning solution
• Reorder Point ROP
• Student housing
• Fuel Oil
• Pharmacy
• Finals
• Fixed Order Interval FOI
• Economic Run Size ERS aka POQ
• Single Period (Perishable) Model--cider case
• The custard case (pdf)
• Lessons from the Charity Custard Sale Case (ppt)

An Overview of Forecasting

• Forecasting ppt show

Project Management

PERT and CPM ppt show

Learning and Efficiency

Learning Curves

Efficiency, Time and Motion Studies