start page 282
start page 283
LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
Washington D.C. December 31 1996
The Council of Economic Advisers submits this report on its activities during the calendar year 1996 in accordance with the requirements of the Congress as set forth in section 10(d) of the Employment Act of 1946 as amended by the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978.
Joseph E. Stiglitz, Chairman
Alicia H. Munnell, Member
Jeffrey A Frankel, Member-Nominee
start page 284
|Name||Position||Oath of office date||Separation date|
|Edwin G Nourse||Chairman||August 9 1946||November 1 1949|
|Leon H Keyserling||Vice Chairman||August 9 1946|
|Acting Chairman||November 2 1949|
|Chairman||May 10 1950||January 20 1953|
|John D Clark||Member||August 9 1946|
|Vice Chairman||May 10 1950||February 11 1953|
|Roy Blough||Member||June 29 1950||August 20 1952|
|Robert C Turner||Member||September 8 1952||January 20 1953|
|Arthur F Burns||Chairman||March 19 1953||December 1 1956|
|Neil H Jacoby||Member||September 15 1953||February 9 1955|
|Walter W Stewart||Member||December 2 1953||April 29 1955|
|Raymond J Saulnier||Member||April 4 1955|
|Chairman||December 3 1956||January 20 1961|
|Joseph S Davis||Member||May 2 1955||October 31 1958|
|Paul W McCracken||Member||December 3 1956||January 31 1959|
|Karl Brandt||Member||November 1 1958||January 20 1961|
|Henry C Wallich||Member||May 7 1959||January 20 1961|
|Walter W Heller||Chairman||January 29 1961||November 15 1964|
|James Tobin||Member||January 29 1961||July 31 1962|
|Kermit Gordon||Member||January 29 1961||December 27 1962|
|Gardner Ackley||Member||August 3 1962|
|Chairman||November 16 1964||February 15 1968|
|John P Lewis||Member||May 17 1963||August 31 1964|
|Otto Eckstein||Member||September 2 1964||February 1 1966|
|Arthur M Okun||Member||November 16 1964|
|Chairman||February 15 1968||January 20 1969|
|James S Duesenberry||Member||February 2 1966||June 30 1968|
|Merton J Peck||Member||February 15 1968||January 20 1969|
|Warren L Smith||Member||July 1 1968||January 20 1969|
|Paul W McCracken||Chairman||February 4 1969||December 31 1971|
|Hendrik S Houthakker||Member||February 4 1969||July 15 1971|
|Herbert Stein||Member||February 4 1969|
|Chairman||January 1 1972||August 31 1974|
|Ezra Solomon||Member||September 9 1971||March 26 1973|
|Marina v N Whitman||Member||March 13 1972||August 15 1973|
|Gary L Seevers||Member||July 23 1973||April 15 1975|
|William J Fellner||Member||October 31 1973||February 25 1975|
|Alan Greenspan||Chairman||September 4 1974||January 20 1977|
|Paul W MacAvoy||Member||June 13 1975||November 15 1976|
|Burton G Malkiel||Member||July 22 1975||January 20 1977|
|Charles L Schultze||Chairman||January 22 1977||January 20 1981|
|William D Nordhaus||Member||March 18 1977||February 4 1979|
|Lyle E Gramley||Member||March 18 1977||May 27 1980|
|George C Eads||Member||June 6 1979||January 20 1981|
|Stephen M Goldfeld||Member||August 20 1980||January 20 1981|
|Murray L Weidenbaum||Chairman||February 27 1981||August 25 1982|
|William A Niskanen||Member||June 12 1981||March 30 1985|
|Jerry L Jordan||Member||July 14 1981||July 31 1982|
|Martin Feldstein||Chairman||October 14 1982||July 10 1984|
|William Poole||Member||December 10 1982||January 20 1985|
|Beryl W Sprinkel||Chairman||April 18 1985||January 20 1989|
|Thomas Gale Moore||Member||July 1 1985||May 1 1989|
|Michael L Mussa||Member||August 18 1986||September 19 1988|
|Michael J Boskin||Chairman||February 2 1989||January 12 1993|
|John B Taylor||Member||June 9 1989||August 2 1991|
|Richard L Schmalensee||Member||October 3 1989||June 21 1991|
|David F Bradford||Member||November 13 1991||January 20 1993|
|Paul Wonnacott||Member||November 13 1991||January 20 1993|
|Alan S Blinder||Member||July 27 1993||June 26 1994|
|Laura D'Andrea Tyson||Chair||February 5 1993||April 22 1995|
|Joseph E Stiglitz||Member||July 27 1993|
|Chairman||June 28 1995|
|Martin N Baily||Member||June 30 1995||August 30 1996|
|Alicia H Munnell||Member||January 29 1996|
start page 285
The Council of Economic Advisers was established by the Employment Act of 1946 to provide the President with objective economic analysis and advice on the development and implementation of a wide range of domestic and international economic policy issues.
Martin N. Baily was a Member of the Council until August 1996. He left the Council to join the Global Institute at McKinsey and Company, Inc. The President has nominated Jeffrey A. Frankel to succeed Dr. Baily as a Member of the Council. While awaiting confirmation, Dr. Frankel has been serving as Chief Economist. He is on leave from the University of California, Berkeley, where he is a Professor of Economics. He previously directed the program on International Finance and Macroeconomics at the National Bureau
of Economic Research and is a former Senior Fellow at the Institute for International Economics. The Chair and Members work as a team on most economic policy issues. Dr. Munnell and Dr. Baily shared responsibility for domestic macroeconomic analysis, the Administration’s economic forecast, and budget and tax issues. Dr. Munnell is primarily responsible for health care, welfare reform, environmental, and labor issues. Dr. Baily was primarily responsible for international economic issues and certain microeconomic issues, including agriculture and the environment. Dr. Frankel has taken over this portfolio. The Chair and the Council Members participate in the deliberations of the NEC. Dr. Stiglitz is a member of the NEC Principals Committee.
The Council, the Department of the Treasury, and the Office of Management and Budget— the Administration’s economic ‘‘troika’’— are responsible for producing the economic forecasts that underlie the Administration’s budget proposals. The Council, under the leadership of the Members, initiates the forecasting process twice each year. In preparing these forecasts, the Council consults with a wide variety of outside sources, including leading private sector forecasters.
In 1996 the Council continued to take part in discussions about the President’s balanced budget plan. The Council also participated in meetings on a range of budget issues including Medicare and Medicaid, discretionary spending priorities, and the Administration’s tax proposals.
The Council, together with the Department of Labor, prepared a report titled ‘‘ Job Creation and Employment Opportunities: The United States Labor Market, 1993– 1996, ’’ which analyzed the
American economy’s robust employment growth, the nature of the jobs being created, and the incidence of job displacement. This report concluded that over two- thirds (68 percent) of the net job growth in full- time employment between February 1994 and February 1996 occurred in industry/ occupation categories that paid above- median wages. The Council also prepared a background report titled ‘‘ Promoting Economic Growth, ’’ which discussed the challenge of increasing the underlying productivity growth rate of the U. S. economy.
The Council continued its efforts to improve the public’s understanding of economic issues and the Administration’s economic agenda through regular briefings with the economic and financial press, frequent discussions with outside economists, and presentations to outside organizations.
In 1996, Dr. Stiglitz led a U. S. delegation to the Information Society and Development (ISAD) Conference in South Africa. The ISAD Conference, which followed the 1995 G– 7 Ministerial Conference on the Information Society held in Brussels, was designed to extend acceptance of the Global Information Infrastructure principles, first articulated by the Vice President in 1994, to the developing world. Dr. Stiglitz also led a U. S. delegation to China, where he met with top Chinese officials to initiate a dialogue on economic issues between the Council and China’s State Planning Commission. In addition, the Council drafted the 1996 APEC Economic Outlook for the Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation, and Dr. Stiglitz presented this report to the APEC Ministers during their meetings in Manila.
The Council plays a leading role in U. S. participation in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the principal forum for economic cooperation among the high- income industrialized countries. The Council heads the U. S. delegation to the semiannual Economic Policy Committee (EPC) meetings, and
Dr. Stiglitz is the Committee’s Chairman. In that role, Dr. Stiglitz has led an effort to make the EPC’s meetings more relevant to member- country policy discussions. Dr. Munnell led the U. S. delegation to the OECD’s Working Party 1 on microeconomic and structural issues and participated in Working Party 3. Dr. John D. Montgomery also participated in the OECD’s Working Party 3 on macroeconomic policy coordination, and Dr. Steven N. Braun led the U. S. delegation to the OECD’s Short- term Economic Forecasters Meeting.
The Council was an active participant in the Administration’s reinventing government effort, which has made Federal Government agencies more efficient and more performance oriented and has revised and eliminated thousands of pages of regulations. To help promote its objectives, the Council advocated procurement reforms that would extend the use of competitive auctions by Federal agencies in their purchase of products and services.
The Council was involved in efforts to implement the 1996 telecommunications reform bill. The Council worked with the Vice President, the National Economic Council, and the Departments of Justice and Commerce to develop Administration policies regarding interconnection of telephone competitors. Dr. Timothy J. Brennan participated in an economists’ forum at the Federal Communications Commission to examine various aspects of allowing local telephone companies to provide long- distance service. The Council also promoted participation in spectrum auctions held by the Federal Communications Commission and played an important role in ongoing efforts to restructure INTELSAT and Inmarsat (the international satellite consortia).
The Council was active in a range of policy discussions on natural resources and the environment. The Council has been a leading proponent of reforming public lands policy, especially by reducing subsidies for extractive use of Federal public lands. The Council played a key role in the Headwaters acquisition negotiations and has worked extensively on other land exchanges.
The Council participates actively in the ongoing assessment of global climate change policies. The Council was also active in discussions on the Superfund program and other issues relating to the
The Council played an important role in agricultural policy reform, most notably the Administration’s continuing efforts to implement the 1996 Farm Act. The Council also advised on the operation of agricultural trade programs, including the sugar program and various farm export subsidy programs.
Michele M. Jolin
Catherine H. Furlong
Jennifer C. Daskal
Sarah J. Reber
Diane M. Whitmore
Mary E. Jones
Rosalind V. Rasin
Mary A. Thomas
Michael Treadway provided editorial assistance in the preparation of the 1997 Economic Report. Robert E. Cumby, Georgetown University, David M. Cutler, Harvard University and Michael A.
Student interns during the year were Oren Ahoobim, Anthony R. Alvarado, Noelle M. Campbell, Albert C. Chen, George L. Colindres, Mariano Florentino Cuellar, Ariel S. Glasner, Kara A. Gobi, Minna J. Hahn, Mary K. Lesh, Robert P. Martin, Rachel A Novak, Christopher J. O'Connor, Angela Sherry Courtney, A. Sweeney Megan, R. Sweeney James, R .Sweet, and Jose A. Villar. The following student interns joined the Council in January to assist with the preparation of the Economic Report: James T. Engelhardt, Gregory B. Garvin, and Laura M. Higginson.
Staff economists are generally graduate students who spend 1 year with the Council and then return to complete their dissertations. Those who returned to their graduate studies in 1996 are Michael A. Ash (University of California, Berkeley), Jonah B. Gelbach (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), and Scott J. Wallsten (Stanford University). Valerie A. Mercer accepted a position with the International Monetary Fund. Ronald C. Chen began graduate studies at Oxford University.
The PDF Source Files are from http://www.access.gpo.gov/su_docs/budget98/pdf/erp.pdf (January 1997).
HTML files produced from above PDF Source Files using Adobe® Acrobattm Reader version 3.0 and Adobe® Acrobattm Access Plug-in version 1.0B2 for Microsoft® Windows 95tm. These documents have been modified from the originals and are not to be considered authoritative for legal purposes.
The WK1 Spreadsheet files were extracted from U.S. Federal Depository Library CD-ROM The Budget of the United States Government: Fiscal Year 1998 (Superintendent of Documents number PREX 2.8/1:998)
Original sources from Economic Report of the President (February 1997) published by the Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., and classified under Superintendent of Documents (SuDoc) number PR 42.9:997.